What Happened to $1.76 Billion in World Bank Funding? A SQL Analysis of Myanmar

The World Bank's International Development Association (IDA) is the lending arm that finances development in the world's poorest countries. Since its founding in 1960, it has committed hundreds of billions of dollars across thousands of projects, from building roads in Sub-Saharan Africa to funding healthcare systems in South Asia.

When I started exploring the IDA dataset, I had 11,171 loan records spanning dozens of countries and six decades. While reviewing the data, I came across Myanmar. The country's lending history immediately reminded me of the 2021 military coup, an event widely covered at the time. I found myself wondering: what did that political disruption actually look like in the financial data? That question became the focus of this project.

Myanmar received $4.31 billion in World Bank financing across 55 projects spanning five decades.

Then, on February 1st, 2021, a military coup disrupted that trajectory.

At the time of the coup, over 200 Myanmar civil society organizations called for a freeze on World Bank loans. The data shows what happened next.

I wanted to understand what that moment looked like in the data, not in headlines, but in dollars, projects, and cancelled commitments. So I loaded the World Bank's IDA lending dataset into MySQL and started asking questions.

Here's what I found.

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About the Dataset & Tools

The dataset contains the latest available snapshot of IDA lending data, with 11,171 records covering loans globally as of March 2026. I filtered Myanmar's 55 records and analyzed them using MySQL.

Tools: MySQL · Data: World Bank IDA Statement of Credits, Grants and Guarantees — Latest Available Snapshot (11,171 records, March 2026)

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Business Questions I Explored

Before writing a single query, I framed five questions:

1. How much did the World Bank commit to Myanmar, and what is the current state of that investment?
2. How did lending change across Myanmar's key political periods?
3. Which projects were cancelled, and how much had already been disbursed before cancellation?
4. Which projects survived the disruption?
5. Did the cancellations target specific development priorities, or was the withdrawal broad?

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Q1 - Portfolio Overview

How much did the World Bank commit to Myanmar, and what is the current state of that investment?

-- Q1: Portfolio Overview
-- Question: How much did the World Bank commit to Myanmar, and what is the current
-- state of that investment?

SELECT
    COUNT(*) AS total_loans,
    ROUND(SUM(Original_Principal_Amount_US) / 1000000000, 2) AS committed_billions,
    ROUND(SUM(Cancelled_Amount_US) / 1000000000, 2) AS cancelled_billions,
    ROUND(SUM(Disbursed_Amount_US) / 1000000000, 2) AS disbursed_billions,
    ROUND(SUM(Repaid_to_IDA_US) / 1000000000, 2) AS repaid_billions,
    ROUND(SUM(Due_to_IDA_US) / 1000000000, 2) AS still_owed_billions
FROM ida_latest
WHERE Country_Economy = 'Myanmar'
;

The numbers tell a clear story: of $4.31 billion committed, nearly 41% ($1.76 billion) was cancelled. Only $2.45 billion actually reached Myanmar. The country has repaid $890 million and still owes $1.43 billion today.

This is not a portfolio winding down cleanly. It's a portfolio interrupted.

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Q2 - Lending by Era

How did World Bank lending change across Myanmar's key political periods?

-- Q2: Lending by Era
-- Question: How did World Bank lending change across Myanmar's key political periods?

SELECT
    CASE
        WHEN YEAR(STR_TO_DATE(Board_Approval_Date, '%m/%d/%Y')) < 2011
            THEN '1. Before 2011 - Isolation'
        WHEN YEAR(STR_TO_DATE(Board_Approval_Date, '%m/%d/%Y')) BETWEEN 2011 AND 2020
            THEN '2. 2011-2020 - Reform & Opening'
        ELSE '3. 2025 - New Approvals After the Gap'
    END AS era,
    COUNT(*) AS total_loans,
    ROUND(SUM(Original_Principal_Amount_US) / 1000000000, 2) AS committed_billions,
    ROUND(SUM(Cancelled_Amount_US) / 1000000000, 2) AS cancelled_billions,
    ROUND(SUM(Disbursed_Amount_US) / 1000000000, 2) AS disbursed_billions,
    ROUND(SUM(Repaid_to_IDA_US) / 1000000000, 2) AS repaid_billions,
    ROUND(SUM(Due_to_IDA_US) / 1000000000, 2) AS still_owed_billions,
    ROUND(AVG(Original_Principal_Amount_US) / 1000000, 2) AS avg_loan_size_millions
FROM ida_latest
WHERE Country_Economy = 'Myanmar'
GROUP BY era
ORDER BY era
;

Three distinct eras emerge from the data:

Before 2011: Isolation. 30 loans totaling $800 million over decades. Average loan size: $26.8 million. Small, cautious commitments. Myanmar was largely cut off from international finance, and the World Bank lent accordingly, carefully, modestly, with most of it eventually repaid.

2011–2020: Reform and Opening. When Myanmar's political environment opened during this period, World Bank lending increased significantly. Just 21 loans, but $3.42 billion committed. Average loan size exploded to $162.7 million, six times larger than the isolation era.

These were not cautious bets. They were nation-building investments.

2025: New Approvals After the Gap. A small number of new approvals appear in 2025, suggesting a cautious re-engagement. Four loans totaling $92 million, averaging $23 million each, back to isolation-era scale.

The data shows the World Bank doesn't just respond to political change. It mirrors it.

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Q3 - Where Did $1.76 Billion Go?

Which projects were cancelled, and how much had already been disbursed before cancellation?

-- Q3: Where Did $1.76 Billion Go?
-- Question: Which projects were cancelled, how much was disbursed before cancellation,
-- and what does that reveal about interrupted development?

SELECT
    Project_Name,
    Board_Approval_Date,
    ROUND(Original_Principal_Amount_US / 1000000, 2) AS committed_millions,
    ROUND(Disbursed_Amount_US / 1000000, 2) AS disbursed_millions,
    ROUND(Cancelled_Amount_US / 1000000, 2) AS cancelled_millions,
    ROUND(Cancelled_Amount_US / NULLIF(Original_Principal_Amount_US, 0) * 100, 1) AS pct_cancelled,
    Credit_Status
FROM ida_latest
WHERE Country_Economy = 'Myanmar'
AND Cancelled_Amount_US > 0
ORDER BY Cancelled_Amount_US DESC, Credit_Status;

This is where the data becomes uncomfortable.

Five projects were cancelled at 100%, meaning the money was approved, the projects were designed, and then nothing arrived:

• Power System Efficiency and Resilience: $350M committed, $0 disbursed
• National Food and Agriculture System: $200M committed, $0 disbursed
• Myanmar Development Policy Operation: $200M committed, $0 disbursed
• Essential Health Services Access Project: $100M committed, $0 disbursed
• IAQE Project: $100M committed, $0 disbursed

That's $950 million that never reached the people it was meant for.

But some projects were already mid-stream when the cancellations hit, making the interruption even more striking:

• Myanmar COVID-19 Response: $50M approved during a global pandemic, $44.47M cancelled after only $7.37M had been deployed
• MCCT for Improved Nutrition: $100M committed, $90.27M cancelled after only $9.9M reached its recipients
• Myanmar Financial Sector Development: $100M committed, $82M cancelled after $18M had already gone in

Work had started. Money was flowing. Then it stopped.

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Q4 - What Survived?

Which projects remain active or are still being repaid despite the disruption?

-- Q4: What Survived?
-- Question: Which projects remain active or are still being repaid despite the
-- political disruption?

SELECT
    Project_Name,
    Board_Approval_Date,
    ROUND(Original_Principal_Amount_US / 1000000, 2) AS committed_millions,
    ROUND(Disbursed_Amount_US / 1000000, 2) AS disbursed_millions,
    ROUND(Due_to_IDA_US / 1000000, 2) AS still_owed_millions,
    Credit_Status
FROM ida_latest
WHERE Country_Economy = 'Myanmar'
AND Credit_Status NOT IN ('Fully Cancelled', 'Fully Repaid')
ORDER BY Due_to_IDA_US DESC
;

Not everything collapsed, and it's worth understanding what survived.

The largest surviving loan is the Reengagement and Reform Support Program: $440M committed, $419M disbursed, $353M still owed. Large infrastructure projects like the National Electrification Project ($400M) and the Electric Power Project ($140M) continued, possibly because they were already substantially disbursed and operationally embedded.

Perhaps the most surprising finding: loans from the 1970s and 1980s, Wood Industries, Irrigation projects, Ports, are still being repaid today. Myanmar is simultaneously repaying Cold War era debt while having its 21st century development investments cancelled.

And in May 2025, three new loans quietly appeared, SCORE and Myanmar HANS, small humanitarian commitments totaling $92 million. The data suggests the relationship has reset to a much more cautious baseline.

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Q5 - Which Sectors Were Hit Hardest?

Did the cancellations target specific development priorities, or was the withdrawal broad?

-- Q5: Which Sectors Were Hit Hardest?
-- Question: Did the cancellations target specific development priorities, or was the
-- withdrawal broad?

SELECT
    CASE
        WHEN Project_Name LIKE '%Power%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Energy%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Electric%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Gas%'
            THEN 'Energy & Power'
        WHEN Project_Name LIKE '%Health%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Nutrition%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Medical%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%COVID%'
            THEN 'Health'
        WHEN Project_Name LIKE '%Road%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Transport%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Railway%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Port%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Telecom%'
            THEN 'Transport & Infrastructure'
        WHEN Project_Name LIKE '%Agriculture%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Food%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Farm%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Seed%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Irrigation%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Irrig%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Rubber%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Timber%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Forestry%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Wood%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Grain%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Paddy%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Livestock%'
            THEN 'Agriculture & Natural Resources'
        WHEN Project_Name LIKE '%Education%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%School%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Learning%'
            THEN 'Education'
        WHEN Project_Name LIKE '%Finance%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Financial%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Reform%'
            THEN 'Finance & Reform'
        WHEN Project_Name LIKE '%Community%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Rural%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%NCCDP%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%MCCT%'
            THEN 'Community Development'
        WHEN Project_Name LIKE '%Flood%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Disaster%'
            OR Project_Name LIKE '%Emergency%'
            THEN 'Emergency & Disaster'
        ELSE 'Other'
    END AS sector,
    COUNT(*) AS total_loans,
    ROUND(SUM(Original_Principal_Amount_US) / 1000000, 2) AS committed_millions,
    ROUND(SUM(Disbursed_Amount_US) / 1000000, 2) AS disbursed_millions,
    ROUND(SUM(Cancelled_Amount_US) / 1000000, 2) AS cancelled_millions,
    ROUND(SUM(Cancelled_Amount_US) / NULLIF(SUM(Original_Principal_Amount_US), 0) * 100, 1) AS cancellation_rate_pct
FROM ida_latest
WHERE Country_Economy = 'Myanmar'
GROUP BY sector
ORDER BY cancelled_millions DESC;

The withdrawal was not random.

Health projects faced a 72.1% cancellation rate, with $252 million cancelled out of $350 million committed. This includes the COVID-19 response fund, pulled back during a global health crisis. Emergency and Disaster response was cancelled at 81.7%. Finance and Reform projects lost 68.4% of their committed funding. Energy and Power lost 64.7%.

By contrast, Transport and Infrastructure survived almost entirely, with only 8.2% cancelled. Community Development and Education saw zero cancellations.

The pattern suggests the World Bank pulled back on forward-looking investments, the ones designed to transform Myanmar's systems and institutions, while allowing already-embedded physical infrastructure to continue. Projects that had already poured concrete were harder to stop than projects that existed only in agreements.

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Key Findings

• Myanmar received $4.31B in World Bank commitments across 55 projects
• 41% of all committed funding ($1.76B) was cancelled
• Average loan size increased 6x during the reform era
• $950M across five projects was cancelled at 100%. The money never arrived.
• Health and emergency sectors saw cancellation rates above 70%
• Transport and infrastructure saw only 8.2% cancelled
• Loans from the 1970s are still being repaid today
• In 2025, small humanitarian approvals reappear in the data

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Closing Thoughts

Data doesn't take sides. But it does keep records.

The World Bank's IDA dataset for Myanmar isn't just a financial ledger. It's a timeline of ambition, disruption, and cautious return. The $1.76 billion in cancellations represents more than withdrawn funding. It represents a power grid that wasn't built, a food system that wasn't modernized, a health response that arrived too late and left too soon.

What the data can't tell us is what those projects would have meant for the people they were designed to serve. But it can tell us they existed, they were funded, and then they were gone.

This is one way political instability can show up in a spreadsheet.